Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 5, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,891 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Liberal

44%

45%

46%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

48%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

32%

32%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

55%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

46%

45%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

Leadership Challenge Good or Bad for Government

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Do you think the recent leadership challenge has been good or bad for the Labor Government?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

13%

30%

7%

16%

Total bad

62%

39%

80%

50%

Very good

4%

10%

2%

4

Good

9%

20%

5%

12%

Neither good nor bad

18%

26%

12%

28%

Bad

24%

25%

22%

28%

Very bad

38%

14%

58%

22%

Don’t know

6%

4%

2%

6%

62% think that the recent leadership challenge was bad for the Labor Party and only 13% think it was good.

Labor voters were split – 39% think it was bad, 30% good and 26% neither good nor bad.

Comments »

More or Less Likely to Vote Labor

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total more likely

13%

33%

5%

18%

Total less likely

47%

21%

64%

38%

Much more likely

6%

17%

1%

5%

A little more likely

7%

16%

4%

13%

A little less likely

10%

11%

7%

16%

Much less likely

37%

10%

57%

22%

Makes no difference

34%

42%

30%

43%

Don’t know

5%

3%

1%

-

47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.

Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.

Comments »

Kevin Rudd’s Future

Mar 5, 2012

Q. What do you think Kevin Rudd should do now?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Stay in Parliament and challenge again

29%

30%

28%

29%

Stay in Parliament and not challenge again

28%

44%

17%

46%

Resign from Parliament

30%

17%

44%

20%

Don’t know

13%

8%

10%

5%

Respondents were divided about what Kevin Rudd should do – 30% say he should resign from parliament, 29% think he should stay and challenge again and 28% think he should stay and not challenge again.

Among Labor voters, 44% think he should stay and not challenge, while 44% of Liberal/National voters think he should resign from Parliament. 46% of Greens voters think he should stay in Parliament and not challenge again.

Comments »

Next Election

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

 

5 Sept 11

5 Dec 11

30 Jan 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Should run to 2013

40%

47%

48%

46%

90%

17%

80%

Should hold election now

48%

41%

41%

44%

7%

77%

12%

Don’t know

12%

12%

10%

10%

4%

5%

8%

46% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 44% think an election should be held now.

Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in January.

Comments »

Performance during Leadership Challenge

Mar 5, 2012

Q. How would you rate the performance of the following during the Labor leadership challenge?

 

Total good

Total poor

Very good

Good

Average

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know

Julia Gillard

23%

49%

10%

13%

24%

17%

32%

4%

Kevin Rudd

33%

35%

12%

21%

27%

16%

19%

4%

Labor Party Ministers

10%

52%

2%

8%

30%

25%

27%

8%

Tony Abbott

25%

40%

9%

16%

27%

18%

22%

8%

The media

14%

43%

3%

11%

35%

20%

23%

6%

Apart from Kevin Rudd, the performance of all parties to the leadership challenge were rated poorly.

33% thought the performance of Kevin Rudd was good and 35% poor. For Julia Gillard the rating was 23% good and 49% poor. Labor Party Ministers were rated most negatively – 10% good and 52% poor.

However, Julia Gillard was rated a little better than Kevin Rudd by Labor voters – their rating of Julia Gillard was 50% good/15% poor compared to 49% good/22% poor for Kevin Rudd.

Comments »

Election of Party Leaders

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Do you think party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour or who the members of Parliament believe is the best person to lead their party?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The person the voters favour

56%

52%

62%

40%

The person members of Parliament believe best to lead the party

30%

35%

28%

49%

Don’t know

14%

12%

11%

11%

A majority of 56% think that party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour and 30% think that the leadership should go to the person the members of Parliament believe is to lead their party.

Liberal/National voters are more likely to think the leader should be the person the voters favour (62%) while Greens voters tended to favour the person members of Parliament believe best (49%).

Older voters (aged 55+) were a little more likely to leave the judgment to the Parliamentarians although still prefer the person the voters favour 53% to 39%.

Comments »

Preferred System for Electing Party Leaders

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Which of the following do you think would be the best way to elect national party leaders?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Australian system where the leader is elected by the Members of Parliament

36%

45%

36%

45%

The US system where registered voters in primaries elect the party’s candidate for President

31%

25%

36%

23%

The UK system where MPs, party members (and in Labour’s case, union members from affiliated unions) all get to vote for the party leader

11%

10%

8%

15%

Don’t know

23%

19%

19%

17%

36% prefer the Australian system of electing the party leader – 31% prefer the US system and 11% the UK system.

Labor and Greens voters were more likely to prefer the Australian system (45%) and Liberal/National voters the US system (36%).

45% of people aged 55+ and 45% of those on income of $1,600+ pw favoured the Australian system.

Comments »