Opinion of Julia Gillard

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   2 weeks ago
Total gone up 21% 42% 8% 22%   19%
Total gone down 40% 13% 67% 28%   42%
Gone up a lot 6% 16% * 3%   6%
Gone up a little 15% 26% 8% 19%   13%
Stayed the same 35% 44% 23% 48%   32%
Gone down a little 18% 12% 26% 15%   20%
Gone down a lot 22% 1% 41% 13%   22%
Don’t know 4% 1% 1% 2%   7%

21% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 40% say it has gone down.

This is a slight improvement on their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 19% up and 42% down.

By gender – men 20% up/43% down and women 23% up/36% down. Comments »

Opinion of Tony Abbott

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   2 weeks ago
Total gone up 26% 6% 55% 5%   27%
Total gone down 37% 61% 9% 57%   27%
Gone up a lot 8% 1% 18% -   8%
Gone up a little 18% 5% 37% 5%   19%
Stayed the same 34% 32% 37% 37%   38%
Gone down a little 15% 22% 7% 19%   11%
Gone down a lot 22% 39% 2% 38%   16%
Don’t know 3% 1% * 1%   8%

26% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 37% say it has gone down.

This is a decline from their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 27% up and 27% down.

 By gender – men 27% up/37% down and women 25% up/38% down. Comments »

The Punch: Seven cautionary tales for people who want to win

Aug 17, 2010

First Published on The Punch 17/08/2010

The last week of elections is white line fever time. It’s the moment when history is written and the stakes are amplified and everything counts from the fliers, to the bunting, to the final ads, to the body language.

Just over 14 million Australians are registered to vote this Saturday – and if you believe the figure that 10 per cent don’t make up their mind until election day that means that the 1.4 million people who will decide this election are still in play.

Comments »

Special Essential Report – Federal Voting Intention by State

Aug 17, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August -  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

First preference

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal 40% 42% 37% 42% 39% 47%
National 3% 4% 3% 4% - 2%
Coalition 43% 46% 40% 46% 40% 49%
Labor 40% 38% 43% 36% 39% 37%
Greens 10% 7% 11% 10% 12% 10%
Others 7% 8% 6% 8% 9% 5%

2PP

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal/National 49% 52% 45% 53% 46% 53%
Labor 51% 48% 55% 47% 54% 47%
Labor 2PP 2007 election 52.7% 53.7% 54.3% 50.4% 52.4% 46.7%
Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election -1.7 -5.7 +0.7 -3.4 +1.6 +0.3

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 16, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August -  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

2,160 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 36% 37% 37% 39% 41%
National 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 39% 39% 42% 44%
Labor 44% 41% 40% 41% 39%
Greens 10% 13% 13% 10% 10%
Family First 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Other/Independent 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 45% 45% 46% 48% 49%
Labor 55% 55% 54% 52% 51%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Approval of Julia Gillard

Aug 16, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

  Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
  29 Mar 31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug
Total approve 53% 41% 48% 52% 49% 46% 45% 46%
Total disapprove 36% 47% 27% 30% 33% 38% 40% 40%
Strongly approve 12% 7% 14% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13%
Approve 41% 34% 34% 41% 37% 36% 32% 33%
Disapprove 22% 25% 13% 17% 19% 23% 24% 24%
Strongly disapprove 14% 22% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16%
Don’t know 12% 12% 26% 18% 17% 15% 15% 13%

 46% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 40% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has increased by 1% and disapproval is unchanged. 91% of Labor voters approve and only 3% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 13% approve and 79% disapprove.

 By gender – men 44% approve/46% disapprove and women 48% approve/34% disapprove. Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Aug 16, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

  18 Jan 22 Feb 29 Mar 3 May 31 May 28 Jun 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug
Total approve 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40% 37% 40% 35% 38% 40% 41%
Total disapprove 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39% 47% 44% 46% 48% 45% 44%
Strongly approve 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 9%
Approve 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31% 29% 34% 29% 30% 32% 32%
Disapprove 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20% 23% 22% 22% 27% 25% 22%
Strongly disapprove 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19% 24% 22% 24% 21% 20% 22%
Don’t know 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20% 16% 16% 19% 14% 15%

15%

41% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 44% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has increased by 1% and disapproval decreased by 1%. 81% of Liberal/National voters approve and 10% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 15% approve and 75% disapprove.

By gender – men 44% approve/45% disapprove and women 38% approve/43% disapprove. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Aug 16, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

  5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Ag 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 92% 8% 71%   47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 3% 77% 3%   30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 5% 15% 26%   23%

 46% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to last week.

 Julia Gillard is preferred 92% to 3% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 77% to 8% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 71% to 3%.

 Men prefer Julia Gillard 45%/39% and women 48%/31%. Comments »

Involvement in Election

Aug 16, 2010

Q. Over the last few weeks, which of the following types on involvement have you had in the Federal election campaign?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Seen TV advertising or heard radio advertising from political parties 66% 69% 72% 77%
Received election leaflets in my letterbox 58% 67% 59% 55%
Watched interviews with politicians on TV or heard them on radio 55% 59% 64% 58%
Read articles about the election in newspapers or magazines 45% 51% 48% 52%
Been handed election materials in the street 8% 10% 8% 8%
Met one of my local candidates 6% 7% 7% 1%
Seen election advertising on Youtube or Facebook 5% 4% 5% 10%
Been door-knocked by a political party 3% 2% 4% 2%
Had a phone call from a political party 2% 3% 2% 2%
Been surveyed by phone or door-to-door (not online surveys) 2% 2% 2% 2%
Joined a Facebook group related to the election 2% 1% 1% 6%
Been to a political meeting or event 1% 1% 1% 1%
Done volunteer work for a candidate (e.g. letterboxing) 1% * 1% 2%
None of these 21% 15% 18% 16%

 The most common forms of involvement in the election are being exposed to TV and radio advertising (66%), letterboxed leaflets (58%), interviews with politicians on TV/radio (55%) and articles in newspapers and magazines (45%). Only 5% said they had seen election advertising on Facebook or Youtube (including 11% of respondents aged 18-24). Comments »

Importance of Issues in Voting

Aug 16, 2010

 

Q. How important are the following in deciding which party you will vote for?

  Top priority Very important Quite important Not so important Don’t know
Better at handling Australia’s economy 37% 48% 10% 1% 4%
They have better policies on things like education and health 31% 47% 16% 1% 4%
They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties 30% 47% 16% 1% 6%
They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians 30% 45% 18% 3% 5%
They will do things that help me and my family 28% 42% 21% 4% 5%
They have better policies on things like national security and immigration 24% 42% 22% 6% 5%
Better at looking after the interests people like me 23% 47% 22% 4% 4%
They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers 23% 44% 24% 4% 5%
More trustworthy than the other parties 22% 44% 21% 5% 8%
They have better policies on things like environment and climate change 21% 41% 23% 9% 5%
They have a better leader 16% 40% 28% 8% 7%
I always vote for them 9% 15% 24% 42% 10%

 Key factors in deciding which party to vote for are handling the economy (37% top priority), policies on education and health (31%), capable of governing effectively (30%) and representing the interests of all Australians (30%). Comments »

Importance of Issues in Voting – by Party

Aug 16, 2010

Q. How important are the following in deciding which party you will vote for?

Top priority Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Better at handling Australia’s economy 37% 33% 51% 19%
They have better policies on things like education and health 31% 41% 25% 35%
They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties 30% 30% 35% 18%
They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians 30% 36% 25% 25%
They will do things that help me and my family 28% 32% 27% 17%
They have better policies on things like national security and immigration 24% 24% 29% 20%
Better at looking after the interests people like me 23% 27% 21% 22%
They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers 23% 36% 17% 20%
More trustworthy than the other parties 22% 23% 23% 21%
They have better policies on things like environment and climate change 21% 26% 13% 46%
They have a better leader 16% 24% 14% 13%
I always vote for them 9% 11% 11% 6%

 The most important issues for Labor voters are policies on education and health (41% top priority), representing the interests of all Australians (36%), policies on industrial relations and supporting workers (36%) and doing things to help me and my family (32%).

For Liberal/National voters the key issues are handling the economy (51% top priority), capable of governing effectively (35%) and policies on national security and immigration (29%).

The major issue for Greens voters is policies on the environment and climate change (46%).  Comments »