Federal politics – voting intention

May 28, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,884 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

30/4/12

2 weeks ago

14/5/12

Last week

21/5/12

This week

28/5/12

Liberal

46%

47%

46%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

50%

49%

50%

Labor

38.0%

31%

30%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

8%

7

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

57%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

43%

43%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Comments »

Attributes of the Labor Party

May 28, 2012

Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?

 

6 Jul 09

14 Mar 10

 

27 April 11

 

28 May 12

% change

Divided

30%

36%

66%

73%

+7%

Will promise to do anything to win votes

57%

63%

72%

70%

-2%

Out of touch with ordinary people

44%

48%

61%

58%

-3%

Moderate

65%

63%

51%

50%

-1%

Looks after the interests of working people

39%

47%

+8%

Understands the problems facing Australia

62%

54%

40%

46%

+6%

Have a vision for the future

43%

41%

-2%

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

46%

36%

-10%

Extreme

25%

26%

38%

31%

-7%

Clear about what they stand for

28%

31%

+3%

Has a good team of leaders

60%

52%

34%

29%

-5%

Keeps its promises

44%

33%

20%

22%

+2%

The Labor Party’s main attributes were – divided (73%), will promise anything to win votes (70%), out of touch with ordinary people (58%) and moderate (50%).
Main changes since last April were – too close to the big corporate and financial interests (down 10% to 36%), looks after the interests of working people (up 8% to 47%), divided (up 7% to 73%), extreme (down 7% to 31%) and understands the problems facing Australia (up 6% to 46%).

Comments »

Attributes of the Liberal Party

May 28, 2012

Q. And which statements do you feel fit the Liberal Party?

 

6 July 09

14 Mar 10

 

27 April 11

28 May 12

% change

Will promise to do anything to win votes

67%

72%

65%

63%

-2%

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

60%

58%

-2%

Out of touch with ordinary people

62%

58%

54%

53%

-1%

Moderate

50%

50%

55%

52%

-3%

Understands the problems facing Australia

44%

43%

51%

52%

+1%

Have a vision for the future

48%

48%

-

Clear about what they stand for

44%

46%

+2%

Looks after the interests of working people

38%

40%

+2%

Has a good team of leaders

29%

31%

40%

39%

-1%

Divided

74%

66%

49%

37%

-12%

Extreme

36%

38%

36%

34%

-2%

Keeps its promises

28%

23%

33%

34%

+1%

The Liberal Party’s main attributes were – will promise anything to win votes (63%), too close to the big corporate and financial interest (58%), out of touch with ordinary people (53%), moderate (52%) and understands the problems facing Australia (52%).

The only substantial change since April last year was a drop in the figure for “divided” – down 12% to 37%.

Comments »

Party Attributes Comparison – Labor vs Liberal

May 28, 2012
 

Labor

Liberal

 

% difference

Divided

73%

37%

+36%

Looks after the interests of working people

47%

40%

+7%

Will promise to do anything to win votes

70%

63%

+7%

Out of touch with ordinary people

58%

53%

+5%

Moderate

50%

52%

-2%

Extreme

31%

34%

-3%

Understands the problems facing Australia

46%

52%

-6%

Have a vision for the future

41%

48%

-7%

Has a good team of leaders

29%

39%

-10%

Keeps its promises

22%

34%

-12%

Clear about what they stand for

31%

46%

-15%

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

36%

58%

-22%

The Labor Party is viewed more favourably than the Liberal Party in terms of – too close to the big corporate and financial interests and looks after the interests of working people.

The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of – divided, clear about what they stand for, keeps it promises and has a good team of leaders..

Comments »

State of the Economy

May 28, 2012

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

35%

56%

24%

54%

Total poor

29%

13%

42%

18%

Very good

6%

13%

2%

17%

Good

29%

43%

22%

37%

Neither good nor poor

33%

30%

33%

28%

Poor

20%

9%

29%

14%

Very poor

9%

4%

13%

4%

Don’t know

2%

2%

*

1%

35% described the economy as good or very good and 29% poor/very poor – 33% said it was neither.

Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were aged 18-34 (41%) and people with incomes over $1,600pw (44%).

Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (34%) and people with incomes of $600-$1,000pw (36%).

Comments »

Agreement with Economic Figures

May 28, 2012

Q. Some say that official figures show Australia’s economy is doing very well, especially compared to the rest of the world.  The interest rate, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate are all less than 5%. Do you agree or disagree that this shows the state of the economy is good?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total agree

52%

75%

39%

70%

Total disagree

37%

17%

54%

23%

Strongly agree

9%

20%

3%

16%

Agree

43%

55%

36%

54%

Disagree

27%

12%

39%

17%

Strongly disagree

10%

5%

15%

6%

Don’t know

10%

7%

7%

8

When told that official figures show Australia’s economy is doing well, 52% agreed and 37% disagreed.

Those most likely to disagree were Liberal/National voters (54%), aged 45+ (45%) and people with incomes of $600-$1,000pw (43%).

Comments »

Reasons Economy is Poor

May 28, 2012

Q. What is the main reason you don’t think the state of the economy is good? *

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Increasing cost of living

34%

34%

32%

40%

Poor economic management by Government

27%

8%

36%

7%

Businesses are struggling

13%

14%

12%

19%

Increasing gap between rich and poor

9%

22%

6%

15%

Global financial problems

7%

11%

5%

11%

Incomes aren’t increasing fast enough to keep up

7%

11%

7%

-

Other reason

2%

-

1%

8%

Don’t know

1%

-

1%

-

* Based on those who disagree that economy is good.

Those who disagreed that the economy was good said the main reasons were the increasing cost of living (34%) and poor economic management by Government (27%).

36% of respondents aged 55+ blamed poor economic management by Government while the increasing cost of living was the major factor for 43% of respondents aged 25-44.

There were no significant differences across income groups in relation to the increasing cost of living.

Reasons Government is Unpopular

May 28, 2012

Q. Although Australia’s economy is doing very well, according to opinion polls the Government is very unpopular. What do you think is the main reason for this? *

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Voters don’t trust the Prime Minister

28%

21%

35%

44%

The carbon tax will increase the cost of living

17%

17%

19%

8%

The economy is doing well for other reasons, like China and the mining boom, not because of the government

15%

13%

19%

5%

Voters are still angry about the treatment of Kevin Rudd.

12%

18%

6%

14%

Voters aren’t benefiting from the strong economy.

12%

10%

14%

8%

The government looks sleazy because of Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper.

4%

5%

3%

8%

Some other reason

8%

12%

3%

11%

Don’t know

3%

5%

1%

3

* Based on those who agree the economy is good.

Respondents who thought the economy was doing well, thought the main reasons for the Government’s unpopularity were that voters don’t trust the Prime Minister (28%), that the carbon tax will increase the cost of living (17%) and that the economy is doing well for other reasons, not because of the Government (15%).

Both Liberal/National and Greens voters said trust in the Prime Minister was the key issue, while Labor voters were somewhat more likely to nominate anger over the treatment of Kevin Rudd.